Having been granted rulership over the city of Vanhoover, and confessed their feelings for each other, Lex Legis and Sonata Dusk have started a new life together. But the challenges of rulership, and a relationship, are more than they bargained for.
For a moment nopony spoke, each group clearly surprised by the other’s appearance.
It was Lex who broke the silence, his eyes flicking over Aisle and lingering on Sonata for a moment before settling on Cozy. “Do you still have healing magic?” he asked, his tone making it clear that he expected an answer immediately.
The words snapped Cozy out of her surprise, and her features immediately darkened. “Is it true?” she demanded, stepping forward. “Are Cloudy and Drafty d-, ah!” Her accusation was cut off as she suddenly lifted her left foreleg with a hiss, as though in pain.
Aisle was at her side in an instant, a worried expression on his face. “Are you alright?!” But even as the words came out of his mouth he realized what had happened, since he’d seen it repeatedly over the last day or so: Lex’s curse had activated, causing Nosey to feel sympathy pain for somepony that was injured. But it only worked on ponies that were in close proximity to her, and Lex didn’t look like he was hurt. Which meant-
“Lex, what’s going on?” Confusion was written all over Sonata’s face as she stepped in front of Aisle and Cozy, interposing herself in Lex’s line of sight so that he was looking at her rather than them. “These two,” she canted her head behind her, “are saying that Cloudbank and Drafty and those other ponies died! Is that true?! And you got back a while ago but went somewhere else instead of telling me? And how come-, ohmygosh!” Her voice rose in alarm as she finally took a good look at her best friend, seeing that her left foreleg was covered in a mass of angry-looking scars. She rushed forward at that, stopping right in front of Nosey to peer at her wound with wide eyes. “What happened to your leg?!”
Nosey bit her lip, shifting her stance so she wasn’t pressing against Lex anymore. “Lex saved me,” she murmured. “I was…there was a monster, and…” The words caught in her throat, and she closed her eyes as she suddenly felt overwhelmed. Without thinking, she reversed her previous motion, letting her side rest against Lex’s again. Relief coursed through her instantly, and she took a slow breath as she opened her eyes again…only to see Sonata giving her a look of shocked comprehension, apparently having understood what had just happened. The sight made Nosey wince internally.
“Sonata, move aside!” snapped Lex. She did so, giving both him and Nosey worried looks, but Lex had his eyes firmly trained on the crystal mare in front of him. “Cozy, if you have healing magic left, use it on Nosey immediately.” This time his words were unmistakably an order.
But Cozy didn’t comply, instead fixing him with a look that was as harsh as it was desperate. “Where are my friends?!” She screamed the last word. “You tell me what happened to them right now or so help me I will-”
“YOU WILL DO NOTHING EXCEPT WHAT I TELL YOU!” roared Lex, his eyes flaring green and purple as his features contorted in rage, stepping forward in an aggressive motion. It was only because he was completely out of dark magic that he didn’t curse her right then. As it was, just yelling made him feel lightheaded, but that softened his next words only a little. “You will heal Nosey’s injury this instant, or I promise you the next curse I place on you will make your life one of such profound misery that Lashtada herself will recoil in horror!”
That got through to her, with Cozy’s look of anger immediately being replaced with fear, the blood draining from her face. Aisle moved to step in front of her again, but Lex’s eyes locked onto his in silent threat, and the other stallion froze, too intimidated to move. Satisfied that her feeble protector wouldn’t try to interfere, Lex returned his attention to Cozy, who had started to shake in fear. “Do it,” he said, his voice now dangerously soft. “Now.”
For just a moment Cozy didn’t move, trying to fight off the urge to turn and run away from the King Sombra-lookalike in front of her as fast as she could. But a second later she scurried forward, her ears folded back and eyes cast meekly downward as the fear of what Lex would do to her if she kept defying him compelled her to obey. Passing by him in silence and going to Nosey, she gingerly took her injured leg in one hoof and began to gesture and chant, murmuring the words to a healing spell.
Sonata moved at the same time, leaving Nosey’s side as Cozy used her magic, going over to Lex. He hadn’t moved since he’d yelled at the crystal mare, and was still facing forward, taking deep breaths in an obvious effort to regain his composure. “Hey,” called Sonata softly as she tentatively brushed herself against him. “You okay?” Out of the corner of her eye, she saw Aisle circling around them, the stallion giving Lex a wide berth as he made his way over to Cozy.
He glanced at her sharply, his features still drawn tight as though expecting to be rebuked. But Sonata didn’t say anything, simply giving him a worried look, and a moment later his eyes changed back to normal as he regained control of himself. “I’m fine,” he responded gruffly. “I just need everypony to do what I tell them, and I can…I can manage this.”
The answer didn’t seem to reassure Sonata very much, her worried expression not changing. “Lex…what happened?”
“…they’re all dead.” He couldn’t look at her as he said it, staring forward at a blank spot on the wall as he spoke. “Cloudbank. Thermal Draft. C. Shells. Sandbar. Turbo.” It suddenly seemed very important to say their names out loud. “They all lost their lives.”
He delivered the news in his usual voice, devoid of any emotion, but Sonata knew better. She had been sure, ever since Cozy had told her about the rumor that the others hadn’t made it back, that Lex would be absolutely crushed if the ponies he’d sent into Vanhoover had died there. As much as it hurt to hear him confirm that they were gone, she was absolutely sure that he was beating himself up over it, and that made the news even more heartbreaking. “Listen to me, it-”
“It’s not your fault,” came Nosey’s voice. Approaching them from behind, her foreleg now completely unmarred, the blonde mare moved to Lex’s other side, opposite Sonata. Giving her friend a brief, hesitant look, Nosey gently pressed herself against Lex again. “You told me not to blame myself, so that goes for you too. You’re not responsible for what happened.”
“Yes he is.”
Cozy’s voice was thick with grief and exhaustion, the soft words spoken with all the conviction of someone who no longer cared what happened to them. Beside her, Aisle winced, giving Lex and the mares beside him a worried look. “Cozy, we shouldn’t-”
But she wasn’t listening, continuing to speak in that same toneless voice. “Of course he is. They went back in there because he sent them back in there. We had finally made it out of Vanhoover, away from all of that horror and fear and death, and he told them to go back there, and they died because of it. It’s his fault they died.”
Lex didn’t react to the words, staring at the interior of the train station with his back to Cozy. Nosey looked back over her shoulder, giving the crystal mare a horrified look. But Sonata whirled in place, snarling in anger. “Okay, I’ve had just about enough of you! Lex is the only reason that you all got out of there in the first place! After everything he’s done for you-”
“Like what?” scoffed Cozy. “What has he done for me?” Tears were running down her cheeks slowly, her face a picture of despair. “Rescuing us and getting us out of the city? He sent my friends back inside just so they could die there anyway. Finding my husband? He brought him back just so he could die right in front of me. Running this place? He might have filled everypony’s belly, but when I found somepony else to love all Lex did was humiliate him right in front of me, making it harder for us to console each other.” She shook her head, giving Sonata a tired look. “Don’t tell me I should be grateful to him for what he’s done.”
Sonata sputtered, so completely beside herself that she couldn’t form coherent words, and Nosey took that chance to step in, frowning at Cozy. “You’re not being fair. Lex has fought harder than anyone to help everypony here. You’ve seen him do it.” Inwardly, Nosey knew she should be getting more upset than this, but after everything that had happened she felt utterly wrung out, unable to summon up any further indignation.
“There’s more to helping ponies than just fighting,” sighed Cozy. “I know that making food and giving out medicine are important, but there’s more to it than that.” She shifted her gaze to look at the back of Lex’s head then, addressing him directly. “In the entire time I’ve known you, I’ve never seen you do anything nice for anyone. Not one kind word. Not one gentle touch. Not one smile. Do you even care that Cloudy and Drafty and those other ponies are dead?”
“Listen,” interjected Aisle nervously. “Everypony’s clearly on edge because of what happened. Why don’t Cozy and I head out, and you-”
“I regret the loss of life very deeply,” replied Lex, ignoring Aisle as he turned around to face Cozy. His face was the same scowl he usually wore, and his voice was steady and even, giving away no hint that he felt anything at all. That was, of course, by design. A childhood of being taunted and made fun of had taught him that you never let someone else see when their words hurt you if you could at all help it, otherwise they’d only intensify their cruelty. “I consider their deaths to be a tragedy of unmitigated proportions.”
Cozy’s lip curled. “Of course you do,” she snorted sarcastically.
That was all Sonata could take. “You NAG!” She was pretty sure that was a swear word here. She’d heard Lex use it more than a few times when referring to the princesses. “I can’t even-, you horrible, miserable, awful nag! I may not have any curses, but you can bet I’m gonna make you regret saying that! Like, liternally! Litterably! Lit-, for REALSIES!”
She started to sing the words of a spell that would forcibly alter Cozy’s thoughts, intent on filling the crystal mare with the urge to beg Lex for forgiveness, but before she could finish chanting Lex thrust a hoof in front of her face. “Stop, Sonata.”
Sonata almost ignored him, wanting to make Cozy pay for what she’d said, but knew from experience that Lex wouldn’t forgive her if she did, cutting off her chant. “But she deserves it!” she growled.
“No,” he replied flatly.
“But-”
“No. However odious her opinion is, it’s not a crime and so she cannot be punished for voicing it.”
Sonata gnashed her teeth in frustration. “Are you kidding me?! So she just gets to say all that stuff and then just walk away?!”
Lex gave a short, crisp nod. “Yes. That’s her right.”
“NO!” Sonata stamped her hoof, glaring at him. “I totes refuse to accept that she gets to just stay here and, like, have you keep killing yourself to protect her when she’s not even grateful!”
“Then I won’t stay here.” Cozy turned away as she said that, heading for the entrance to the train station, Aisle following behind her worriedly. “I was waiting for the trains to start running again, but I can’t wait anymore.” Pausing as she reached the door, she looked back at Lex then. “You’re a powerful wizard, and I know you’re doing your best to keep everypony here alive, but you don’t know anything about what makes life worth living…and I can’t bear to be around you anymore.”
She pushed the door open then, walking out of the building. “I’m taking Pillow, and going back to the Crystal Empire on hoof, right now.”
Cozy and Lex reach a parting of ways in the wake of what happened.
Is this the last we'll see of her? Or is there another twist yet to come?
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strangely enough, that went better than I thought it would.
finally some one call lex out.
All the other are caught up in hero worship and can not see that lex is not a leader.
He is a general who can deal with people's neccessities and make the hard decisions.
He is the equivalent to a rule book that smites people when they break a rule.
Just realised. Now that teh puppetmaster is dead, the trains should be able to start clearning the lines and running? Or is there yet another high level encounter in far too small an area t go yet?
by the way why Luna didn't showed to ease the nightmare of the pony in vanhoover ? She can't reach them ? Why ?
8792941 Fortunately, grief and exhaustion weren't used as fuel for anger here...or at least, not so much that certain ponies took complete leave of their good sense.
8793382 This was touched on back in chapter 60. Luna is basically being drastically overworked, due to a very large number of ponies having nightmares in the wake of the elemental bleeds. Basically, there are more nightmares than she can keep up with. (And for those that she does visit, my suspicion is that she's basically treating them as quickly as she can, with no time for stopping to chat the way she used to when nightmares were much rarer.)
Heated exchanges typically end in rash decisions and Cozy's decision here fits it to a T. Should she actually go through with her decision, I think she's severely underestimating the distance Vanhoover and the Crystal Empire, as well as the security of the railroad. I mean, logistically speaking, she'll need enough supplies to last her long enough for her to reach Tall Tale or a farmstead that hasn't been raided by the camp ponies, supplies that doesn't exist in the camp and Lex conjuring food for her,while deliciously ironic, won't last a day. Not to mention the fact that the chances of encountering dangers along the way is rather high, especially if a predator smells a fresh corpse...
Hopefully Aisle can talk her out of such a foolish plan though he needs to stop walking on glass around Cozy before he can accomplish that. He feels like a doormat here but I suppose he didn't want to add more fuel to the fire. Still, feels like he should have a talk with Cozy over her resentment of Lex, or rather, the trauma inflicted by Sombra.
Regardless I doubt Lex would allow anyone to leave the safety of the camp, even if it's against their will. As long as those under his protection are safe and sound, he'll take any slur and insult in stride. Though Sonata might be a different case here if she was willing to do what she almost did. Still, Nosey is awfully silent here...wonder if she'll have anything interesting to share about Xiriel's plans like what he did outside of city limits. Or she's just too worried about what Sonata thinks about her.
8793348 Well, consider: if they're hero-worshiping him, then it's worth considering if he's done something heroic. Making hard decisions and dealing with necessities is a core function of good governance. And smiting people when they break the rules is what's called "law enforcement." That's a large portion of being a leader right there.
That said, I believe you're implying what Cozy alluded to, which is that Lex doesn't inspire others. While he has admirable qualities (hence what you said about hero-worship), they aren't the sort that make people want to emulate his attitude and beliefs. That has always been his greatest weakness, and the salient question is to what degree do his strengths mitigate it (if at all).
8793366 My, what a salient question!
8793677 Cozy is definitely not making a rational decision, here. In order to get from Vanhoover to the Crystal Empire, she'll not only have to cover a considerable amount of ground, but also get around the Unicorn Mountains, which basically means following the railroad tracks either north (through Windigo Way) or east along the edge of White Tail Woods. Either way, it's not a journey that can be made quickly on foot, though it's theoretically not impossible with enough time and provisions. But with only eight days left on the gentle repose spell Lex cast on Pillow's body, there's no way she can make that trip before decay sets in.
Needless to say, you're right to hope that Aisle talks her down. He was absolutely intimidated into silence here, but that was largely because he recognized that the situation was developing into an explosive one, and he was trying to back things down without making them worse. Although he can absolutely be forceful when he needs to be (see Chapters 69 and 70, when he was introduced), he's wise enough to know when that will help and when it will just make things worse. Given that Lex has the far more forceful personality, and Cozy was near-mad with repeated losses, Aisle knew that a deft touch was called for...not that it helped very much.
As for whether or not Lex will let her leave...that's actually rather iffy. So far there's no indication of any dangers outside of Vanhoover (Xiriel notwithstanding), and if she wants to head further away from the city, well...it's not like the camp is really any safer, given that it has no defensive qualities whatsoever. Though if he does decide that she'd be marching into danger, he wouldn't hesitate to restrict her movements. As you said, he'll put up with a considerable degree of ill-treatment so long as he can fulfill his self-imposed duties.
As for what Nosey knows...it may not be as much as you think. Remember, Xiriel only possessed her for a little over a day-and-a-half. During that time, it concentrated to maintain its dominate person spells on those other ponies, but unto itself Nosey wouldn't know about that. While that spell lets the caster know what the subject is experiencing, and allows for full sensory input during concentration (though not seeing through their eyes), that's with regard to the caster specifically. Given the mental nature of the spell, I question whether or not the individual it was possessing would have access to that same information. It had taken over her body, but their minds were still separate and distinct. Hence why greater possession allows for the two minds to "communicate telepathically" when the caster is in a victim's body; their mentalities are not otherwise connected, but rather are experiencing their shared body's sensory experiences (and only that body's).
And good riddance. Seriously, the only regrets I'll have about Cozy leaving are the problems she's likely to cause if she actually does make it back to the Crystal Empire. She may have a point about Lex not having the best attitude in his leadership, but she refuses to see the big picture about the situation. Instead she just lectures everyone about how she thinks things SHOULD be while actually getting her to contribute anything helpful is like pulling teeth. I really hope it's Nosey's turn to snap at her next and she shoves it down her throat that Lex saved her from a full fledged DEVIL before she leaves, but then Cozy's continual grudge against him would probably make her do some sort of mental gymnastics to blame Xiriel's presence on Lex.
8793679 There's a reason Celestia's job in the show has been described by her sister as "smiling at everyone."
8793783 In a very real way, Cozy serves as a microcosm of the same philosophy that the princesses themselves do, which is all about acting good rather than actually doing good, at least in most circumstances. Cozy, like so many other ponies, wants simply to live a happy life and be nice to everyone around her, having no particularly grand ambitions. Even her becoming a priestess of Lashtada was a larger step forward than she expected to take (and she's handling it imperfectly). Lex, by contrast, is exactly the opposite, possessed of grandiose ambition and no ability to function socially at all. It's little surprise that he and Cozy get along like oil and water.
As for what would happen if Cozy got Princess Cadance involved...well...one can only wonder what the Princess of Love is like now that she's in service to the Goddess of Love.
8793898 Well, Luna got to eat some humble pie in that regard, but yeah, the princesses occupy a small role in Equestria's functions, apparently by design. Lex, in contrast, wants to occupy an extremely large role, and has no sympathy for would-be leaders who don't share his view.
8794239 It definitely feels like the equivalent of fans screaming at the movie screen, I can tell you that.
Yeah, "Woobie" is not a precise term, and has a lot of different connotations, not all of which fit. I probably should have gone with "extremely sympathetic, adorable character."
8794249 This is true. But in this case Lex is actually neglecting one of the few duties the Regal Sisters do actually perform in this universe: Keeping up morale and making people feel connected to their government. Those activities hold utilitarian value for building and maintaining a state, but I suspect Lex sees ribbon-cutting ceremonies as indulgent acts of vanity rather than necessary duties, so he hasn't focused on this aspect. Now he's paying the price, as he's losing his sole remaining source of divine magic due (in part) to an inability/disinclination-to-invest in soft leadership.
8794249
It is a bit of a headcaonon, but it is one shared by many (i think) but Celestia method of ruling is to create an environnement allowing ponys to realize their full potential, and let them do what is needed. As such she is a ruler that is allowed to fail, because many (twillight and the mane 6 being the first of them, but not the only ones) would and could take the mantle. Celestia lose against one of her ennemy ? The mane 6 put him down. Take them out as well ? Cadance/Shining love blast would do. Take them out too ? Starlight form a suicide squad, or team up with Sunburst...And so on and so forth.
Ironically Lex would count : he does something Equestria need, and would probably have been allowed to pass his reforms if he was less confrontationnal. He still can (that would be a good ending to the whole thing), Twillight managed to talk dawn worse antagonists, and he already have a somewhat good opinion of her.
Even if, assuming you still going toward what you put on his character sheet, i can see a conflict between him and the rest of the princesses forming in the horizon (especially considering the meddling of the Night Mare who will push him to become a tyran); he doesn't want war. So it could be an interesting way to go.
How does the Night Mare treat her petitionners by the way ? Because i doubt the equestrians that worship her know what they getting into. I doubt a bunch of pony NG-aligned in general would be happy in an LE-dominated environnement.
Lex is damned no ? Even if he stop dealing with her, his soul is still hers
8794265 You're not wrong there; if Lex sees any value whatsoever in rulers playing a symbolic role for their country, then it's something that he doubtlessly ranks far below actual acts of practical governance. Moreover, he's frustrated that the former gets so much more positive reception from people than the latter. To his mind, instituting programs that build roads and increase food production should be much more popular than hosting a gala or giving a speech, and yet he's seen time and again that people are far more enthusiastic about (the idea of) the latter rather than the former. It baffles and frustrates him that trivial ephemera like an exclusive party would be more exciting than a plan to increase per capita income by 6% over the next two years after being adjusted for inflation.
But the fact of the matter is, that's the reality of the society that he lives in. He knows that, and he spent a lot of years trying to puzzle it out (and still is, though it's no longer a top priority for him). Now he's intent on showcasing why his way is better for everyone. Needless to say, Cozy is a reminder that he's getting mixed results at best.
8795368 It does seem like a fairly safe assumption that Celestia's standpoint is that harmony between ponies (and everyone else) is the most important value of all, and that such a thing should be encouraged and nurtured in a ground-up fashion, rather than imposed in a top-down style. To that end, she seems to believe that it's best to act as a living example of the values that she champions, passively acting as an inspiration rather than actively encouraging their growth via any sort of carrot-and-stick model. Although she is willing to engage in national defense (and tackle certain other problems head on, such as an infestation in Fillydelphia, which she mentioned in Swarm of the Century), she's far from perfect at it, since we've seen her lose many times before. In these cases, her serving as an inspiration is certainly helpful in that others will want to rise up to defend Equestria in her place, but it still leaves a lot to chance. She's been fortunate in that there's always been another group that's been able to succeed where she, or others, failed.
As you noted, Lex could be counted in that vein, as he cares deeply about his homeland and his people, and would absolutely throw himself at anything that threatens them, as we've seen. But to his way of thinking, it shouldn't get that far in the first place; rulers should go after problems proactively, rather than letting a situation degrade to the point where Equestria is already under attack before they get up and actually do something about it. As far as he's concerned, that alone is enough to indict Celestia and the other princesses; winning isn't good enough, they should have stopped the battle from needing to be fought in the first place...especially since it's the innocent bystanders who tend to be hit the hardest.
Of course, you're right to point out that Celestia and the others aren't necessarily adverse to at least some of what Lex is saying: they gave him Vanhoover, after all. But being Lex, he's completely lost all respect for their way of doing things, and is of the opinion that they can't be trusted to handle Equestria's future. Although Sonata talked him out of openly overthrowing the princesses and simply ruling all of Equestria in one fell swoop, Lex is still convinced that he needs to assume absolute power over the country in order to do what needs to be done. He's just going about it a different way, now. Instead of winning via a coup, he wants to beat them at their own game, demonstrating to all of Equestria why his way is better...now if only his city wasn't still infested with monsters!
With regard to Lex and the Night Mare...Lex isn't "damned," per se. I say that because the term technically means being repudiated by a divinity (and, typically, cast into torment), so remaining within the Night Mare's favor isn't technically damnation. He deliberately set out to make a deal with her, and ended up agreeing to it even after learning that he'd go to her realm upon death (though he doesn't intend to ever die). That said...that isn't necessarily ironclad, because his going to her realm is largely dependent on both him and his goddess wanting him there. If he repudiates her, then strictly speaking he wouldn't go to her realm upon death, as he's no longer one of her faithful; remember, only those devoted to a god go to that god's afterlife.
In that case, he'd probably have the same fate as everyone else who dies without a patron deity, and go to the plane that best matches his alignment. Of course, leaving a god's service tends to have repercussions, particularly if you're a high-level servant of a deity (and if the deity is particularly vengeful). If the Night Mare decided to smite him or otherwise end his life, there'd be no other god who would step in to object...at least unless Lex had already cut a deal to serve a different god, who would then (by virtue of his now being a member of their faith) step between Lex and the Night Mare, since gods know that smiting one another's faithful directly like that is an act of war. In this regard, cutting your ties to a god is a lot like renouncing your citizenship; it's a fairly dramatic move, and far better done when you have another country willing to take you in.
That's just with regard to being killed though, as for his soul...well, presuming that he didn't make sure to forge a relationship with a different god who'd then protect him from the Night Mare's wrath, although his soul would be bound for a plane that matched his alignment, it's not impossible that the Night Mare could interfere with that. Cursing him with undeath, after all, is a classical way for gods to torment the souls of dead mortals, not letting them move on and binding them to a particularly unpleasant form of existence. Other methods of making his afterlife extremely unpleasant wouldn't be unthinkable either; while gods aren't supposed to mess with the souls of deceased mortals who aren't devoted to them, the souls of mortals that were, and don't have a new patron now, tend to be something of a gray area.
(I'll also admit that I'm still unsure what the Night Mare's realm is actually like for the ponies who go there. There's no material on the subject anywhere in Ponyfinder, and it's not something I've put much thought into.)
8795535
A lot of Celestia's luck can be explained trough her prophetics dreams. While i don't think it is foolproof it must be very efficient. It can explain her hoof-off approach to equestria defence. I am not sure it is a good thing tough. Maybe she can learn a bit from Lex.
But i am sure that the presence of people capable to defend equestria where she failed is not just luck : she made so such people exist, even if she does not control their involvement
That being said i doubt Lex would not have a lot of succes in beating the pricesses at their own game as you said. They would probably implant his ideas that they find useful (he did lecture Twillight on them in an very complete manner if i remember correctly, and she got at least most of it). And they will not stay idle during the current crisis ; which remove most of the weight of he "the princesses do nothing" argument in the eyes of the ponys especially after a lot of them will go
away after the secession (not good for his image)
Plus while he doesn't base his rule on it, he doesn't forbid "harmony". Harmony pony plece a great importance on.
And most pony trust and rather like their pricesses. So if he want to impose his ways force will became necessary
don't let the door hit you ware the good lord split you, on the way out of camp Cozy.
Lex and Nosey have been threw hell and made it out alive.
Lex needs down time to heal after all this crap hit the fan.
8796177 I'm hesitant to assign very much of Celestia's motives to her prophetic dreams. While we saw them with regard to Tirek, and they make sense insofar as how there could be a prophecy with regard to what would release Nightmare Moon, there's nothing to say that they've otherwise played any role whatsoever in her actions. At the very least, Occam's razor says that we shouldn't presume that they're there unless we have some sort of basis for it, whether explicit or otherwise. Which is to say, I'm of the opinion that most of the times Celestia has failed – her being defeated by Chrysalis, for example, or being snatched by Discord's plunderseeds – were her genuinely not knowing what was going to happen, rather than knowing what would happen and feigning ignorance in order to make things unfold a certain way. Her dreams strike me as something that she had no real control over, and likely don't happen very often.
As for beating the princesses at their own game – which, to be clear, is governance – Lex's line of thinking is that he can do it better than them because he's more engaged. If they were to try and implement some of his ideas, he'd be ecstatic; he wants them to play by his rules, because he's absolutely certain that's an arena where he can win. After all, he pioneered most of the thinking with regards to things like government-supported infrastructure, national taxation, a government-regulated capital market, etc. He is certain that, if he and the princesses are directly competing in that manner, he can outshine them. He knows that only Twilight can match him on sheer intellect, and even then he's convinced that he can outperform her; after all, if she was really able to play politics in the manner he envisions, she wouldn't be trying to emulate that failure Princess Celestia. Make no mistake, Lex would love it if the princesses tried to compete with him on his terms; he'd be far more frustrated if they refused to do so to begin with.
That's what he's most concerned with, not an issue of who can respond to overt threats better. To Lex, anypony will take action when there's a threat of imminent danger (though whether or not they'll succeed is another thing), and so that's not a good metric on which to judge who's more fit to rule. He's far more interested in who will take action when there isn't an immediate peril, leading to greater safety and prosperity before a crisis has developed. That might require that some force be used, but he's very aware that he can't terrorize or harm his own people to achieve what he wants; taxes will need to be collected, and laws enforced, but that should be as far as it goes. He's willing to let Cozy all but spit in his face without letting Sonata retaliate, after all.
8796659 Hopefully this time he'll receive it!
Great job Cosy. Kinda emotional, and not thinking right.
9217630 Cozy knows that she doesn't have her head on straight after everything that's happened, but just because she knows she's not rational doesn't mean that she can stop herself.